Sunday, August 30, 2015

Why The Way We Think About Bias is Wrong

Often, when we think about bias, we think about a person or group explicitly making their opinion known and using slanted rhetoric that clearly favors their position.  Everyone knows that Fox News is biased towards the Republican Party and MSNBC is biased towards the Democratic Party, after all.  Instead, they should put their opinions aside and let the facts speak for themselves!

If only it were that easy.  Avoiding bias isn't just about using a neutral tone and consulting the facts.  Bias runs much deeper than that, and it isn't at all mutually exclusive with neutral tones or factual accuracy, either.

Here's an experiment.  Choose a recent world event and read different news sources about the event.  Not opinion columns, just regular articles.  Let's take the recent anti-government protest in Beirut as an example.  Here's ABC News (United States), The BBC (Great Britain), Al Jazeera (Qatar), Tasnim News Agency (Iran), and Deutsche Welle (Germany) covering these protests.

 Unfortunately, I couldn't find anything from the world's greatest news personality.

Take a quick glance through at least a couple of those articles.  They cover the exact same event, but check out how they frame their story.  What historical context do they give to this event?  What individuals and groups do they choose to cite?  How do they describe the different factions in this story?  Which quotes from the protesters do they choose to use?  Each of these articles have different answers to these sorts of questions, each one presenting different pictures for the exact same event.  And here's the thing: none of them are factually inaccurate or using slanted rhetoric.

It's not just news, either.  It's an inherent part of how we receive and impart information of any type.  Being a history graduate student, I'll use the field of history as an example.  The process of creating History with a capital "H" involves consulting all sorts of credible sources, extracting verified facts, and weaving together a narrative.  But which credible documents do you consult?  Which verified facts do you include?  How do you integrate all of this information into a historical narrative?

Once more, it's tempting to say "let the facts speak for themselves!" and leave it at that.  But think about the implications of that for a moment.  If you were a historian trying to chronicle the present, in order to document the present right now, you'd need to use bias.  You'd need to make decisions about the questions from the above paragraph.  Otherwise, you'd have to go through literally every single document about the present and include literally every single fact you find.  Could you imagine how long it'd take to write the History for a single day if you included a multifaceted, well-sourced section about every documented event that happened during that day?

In the United States, we all remember how George Washington crossed the Delaware River to fight Hitler in a bare knuckle boxing match [citation needed].  But why do we not mention almost everyone else who has ever crossed the Delaware before or since?  On the other hand, why have we not studied George Washington's bathroom etiquette in depth?  It's because historians have collectively decided that those aren't important details to include.  And if they didn't make those sorts of decisions, we'd have impossibly pointless and boring history classes that would take weeks just to cover what happened in a single hour of any given day.

And that concludes everything we know we know about the 11,584,137th person to ever cross the Delaware.  Now, onto one of my personal favorites, the 11,584,138th person...

No one would study History if that were the case.  We need to chisel down how much information we include to make it digestible, and those decisions ultimately come with bias.  How important do you consider peasants, or merchants, or artists, or nobles, or prostitutes, or incredibly good looking internet bloggers when creating your History?  Do you think History is closer to a biography of certain great individuals or of mass movements determined by complex social factors outside of any one individual's control?

Regardless of your answer to that last question, you're probably going to mention some influential individuals and some influential mass social movements either way.  What kind of individuals and movements do you include?  And how influential does an individual have to be, and how big does a movement have to be, before either of those meet the criteria of "influential" in the first place?  Does that change based on the relation between what these individuals or movements stood for and your own world outlook?  That includes not just your opinion on an issue, but how much you think a certain issues matters; if you care more about the issue of environmentalism than animal rights, regardless of your actual stance on either issue, would you be more likely to include themes from the environmentalism debate in a History textbook of yours than those of animal rights?  If not, how would you decide which themes to put in there?

It's not just modern History that suffers from bias problems, either.

We often think of the Middle Ages as super religious, defined by peasants whose life was dominated by the church.  And, yes, that was the case for a lot of people.  But it's also important to note that during this time most people who could read or write came from the church.  Most of our sources from the time period, therefore, come from clergy members, and the result is that our understanding of the time period is heavily skewed by a religious perspective.  There is evidence to suggest that plenty of non-religious people were around back then, too (check entry 9, though the whole list is worth a read).  Considering where most of our historical sources from that time period come from, though, we're given a lot more information about the church and its importance than a more comprehensive variety of sources would reveal.

In reality, most people from the Middle Ages enjoyed playing chess against Death.

What's crucial to understand here is none of these examples necessarily involve deliberate bias.  Yes, certain documents we use from the past might consciously be trying to alter how people might view the world.  Yes, certain historians will purposefully cherry-pick facts only if they conform to the narrative that they wish to create.  But other times, it's all the nuances of both our general world view and how we view History specifically that subtly inform how we decide what constitutes "real" History.

This makes History sound like a field prone to bullshit, but this type of debate isn't exclusive to History in particular.  Not by a long shot.  The point is that, when it comes to choosing what information to include and how to frame that information, we are always making decisions about what is "important" no matter what area of knowledge we're talking about.  Decisions like that are impossible to make without bias on our part.  I mean, how many people completely agree on what's important in life in general, let alone what's important when it comes to a particular topic?

Bringing it back to the news, when we're reading an article, we're reading a collection of facts and interpretation of these facts that come about as a result of countless processes of selection beforehand, and even if an attempt is made to be neutral about the subject of the article it doesn't erases the biases of everything that led to it.  On top of that, "neutral" itself is a relative term, because different groups of people have different default "neutral" positions.

I've heard people call Al Jazeera, one of the world's most respected news sources, unreliable because it's "anti-American", for instance.  Yet that's just as revealing about our own biases in the United States as it is for those who write for Al Jazeera.  In the US, both major political parties consider United States power and influence to be a good thing, and therefore the "neutral" middle ground between these viewpoints does too.  The Democratic Party may generally prefer a more restrained and multilateral version of United States hegemony, but it doesn't question US supremacy itself.  So when Al Jazeera includes perspectives of those who do and don't like US hegemony, in their own attempt to be neutral because they're based in a part of the world that doesn't automatically consider US supremacy to be good, we are tempted to see it as "biased" because it doesn't fit with our version of what is neutral.  In reality, there is no such thing as truly, objectively neutral.

Except for those from the Neutral Planet, of course.

So when it comes to bias, it's not just a matter of people explicitly stating their opinions, lying, using charged rhetoric, or even purposefully being biased at all.  Yet, for those who do want to talk about a topic and be biased, what facts they do and don't include is much more important than taking potshots at the people they disagree with.  Only choosing facts that make the people you don't like look bad, while not explicitly saying a single bad thing about them, has the dual benefits of painting them in a poor light and not making you look biased in the conventional sense!  Documentaries are great at doing this, though it happens everywhere.

Let's take something that is in no way controversial: racism in the media.  In today's day and age, no one in the news is going to blatantly come out and say black people are criminals.  They don't need to, either.  Just disproportionately cover crimes with black perpetrators and people will unconsciously fill in the blanks on their own.  Bombard people with images of black folks as criminals and you don't need to say a single prejudiced thing about them.  Hell, I would imagine most people involved with the news don't even do this on purpose, and are unconsciously perpetuating this racist imagery that they themselves were bombarded with growing up.  And it's not because those people thirty years ago were consciously racist, either- they almost certainly grew up in the same environment with the same sort of stimuli.  I could go on, but the point is that we can't entirely escape the confines of our biases.

That sounds like cynical resignation that could justify total bullshit because "nothing is really unbiased, man! What's the point of exchanging information if it's inherently impossible to be completely objective?  Might as well just say fuck it and write whatever you want!"

Caution: that's a slippery slope toward becoming an "edgy" doofus
who has nothing particularly interesting or noteworthy to say.

But that doesn't have to be the case.  Most of us don't enter into friendships or romantic relationships expecting the other person to be perfect.  Instead, we get to know people we feel a connection with; if we judge them to be overall good people, we build a bond with them.  It's when we allow for imperfection while still valuing the other person and how they can help us grow that we open up the possibility for very rewarding and positive experiences with them.  There's no reason we can't exercise that same idea for how we deal with information: valuing what we get while making sure we understand it isn't flawless.

Like with almost every other problem, awareness of the issue is the first step.  By understanding that no single source of information can ever be perfect by itself, we can seek information from a variety of credible sources and mold our own outlook to make it as well-informed as possible.  When I say a "credible" source I don't mean an unbiased one, of course.  I mean one that has trustworthy factual accuracy and is held to a certain set of standards, whether journalistic, academic, peer-reviewed, or whatever else.  If we consult a diverse group of quality sources and expose ourselves to as many merited ideas as possible, then we can expand our worldviews and grow intellectually.

This approach may take more effort and nuanced thought than pretending you are immune to bias or embracing "fuck it!"-style cynicism, but the results are more than worth it.

Sunday, August 9, 2015

Floyd Mayweather vs Ronda Rousey? A Technical Breakdown

Floyd "Money" Mayweather has a weird cultural narrative around him.  He's often cast as the Bad Guy in WWE-style fight marketing whenever he has a boxing match, largely due to how arrogant he is and how extravagantly he spends his own money.  It's a silly act that works to create drama for a fight.  But he also has a very real record of domestic abuse, and the boxing media is usually pretty silent about the issue.

So, Money Mayweather is marketed as a terrible person for silly reasons, but is actually a terrible person in a way that those involved with the boxing industry are largely silent about.  Gotta love the bullshit theater behind professional sports, eh?

The man is great at two things: boxing and trolling people.

Well, UFC women's bantamweight champion Ronda "Rowdy" Rousey has taken shots at Money Mayweather for his history of domestic abuse.  Her most recent dig came after winning the ESPY Fighter of the Year award, when she sarcastically wondered how it felt for a girl to be beating him for a change (Mayweather was also nominated for the award).  He responded with an uninspired comment about how much money he makes, and now the internet is abuzz with talks of a hypothetical Money vs Rowdy match up.

There are plenty of people, qualified and unqualified alike, offering their opinions as to who would win in a hypothetical MMA fight between the two.  Rather than just give my opinion like everyone else, I'll break down different factors to consider in a hypothetical match between the two.

And no, this won't just be me saying "Mayweather's hope lies in his boxing while Rousey's lies in her grappling" like everyone else.  We'll be digging a little deeper than that.

Factors in Rousey's Favor
1. Mayweather's Stance: When developing as a fighter of any sort, one deceptively important decision comes in the details of your stance.  Do you make your stance more side on, so that your lead leg and shoulder are far forward and your body is practically perpendicular with your opponent's, or should you be more squared up, so that your entire body is facing towards your opponent's?

No fighter will either square up completely or go completely side on.  The trick comes in deciding exactly how squared up or side on your stance should be.  In boxing, there is good argument to be made for standing more side on than squared up.  It presents less of a target to your opponent, and also allows you to protect your face better when you hide your chin behind your lead shoulder, which will absorb most shots aimed at your head from that side (this is known as a "shoulder roll").  Mayweather is a prime example of a boxer who stands in a very side on stance, and is an absolute super saiyan when it comes to using the shoulder roll.

Notice how he is almost perpendicular to his opponent, and because of that
his lead shoulder protects him from his opponent's right hand quite nicely.

It serves him very well in boxing.  In MMA (as well as kickboxing), however, there are a lot more than just punches to take into account.

When you stand in a side on stance like Mayweather does, your lead leg is very far forward.  This is good in that it gives you range, but it also leaves your leg very exposed to attack.  This doesn't matter in boxing, of course, but in a combat sport where kicks are allowed, it becomes a serious problem.  In the UFC, fights have been won by TKOs by leg kick, and even fights that don't end explicitly in TKO by leg kick can still be decided by them because they severely limit movement when done consistently and with effort.

Against someone like Mayweather, who has no experience dealing with kicks, Rousey could go to town on his lead leg.  She could also go for single leg takedowns against that leg; it's not her specialty, since she is much more adept at the clinch, but against someone as untrained in grappling as Mayweather she'd still be able to get the single leg pretty consistently.

2.  The Clinch: No, this isn't me insulting your fighting knowledge by saying Rousey has an advantage here.  What I'm talking about is Mayweather's love of the clinch.  Money has made a science of not getting hit in his matches; when he is at range, he uses his fantastic footwork, head movement, and aforementioned shoulder rollering to avoid damage.  When he's forced into an up close exchange, however, one of his favorite tactics is to dive into the clinch after throwing a combination.  This happens time and time again in his matches, including against Manny Pacquiao, which upset a lot of people who expect boxing matches to be Rock Em Sock Em Robot matches where fighters stand in front of each other and exchange haymakers until someone falls down.

Though a lot of the memes made after the match were, admittedly, pretty hilarious.

Mayweather's tendency to clinch would get him into huge trouble against Rousey.  Now, obviously he'll be aware of this and wouldn't consciously choose to clinch against Rousey.  The issue, though, is that he has spent over two decades, day in and day out for hours on end, cultivating a boxing style that includes a habit of clinching with fellow boxers as a defense tactic.  That's not something that would be easily dropped after a few months, or even a year, of training against an instinct you have developed as long as someone born in the mid-90s has been alive.

3.  Variety of Attack: MMA is full of examples of "superior" strikers getting out-struck by people who are grappling specialists.  Often, fans will either attribute this to the striker having an "off night" against the grappler or the striker getting "exposed" by losing on the feet, depending on whether or not they were rooting for the striker.  What it actually is, however, is a case of MMA science.

When you're such a good grappler that your opponent is afraid of grappling against you, it actually opens up your ability to land strikes.  The reason is this: defending against a clinch or takedown attempt is very different from defending against strikes.  A strategy that elite MMA fighters with a grappling base love to use is feinting a takedown, which causes an opponent to drop their hands, then throwing a strike that catches their opponent off-guard.  Former heavyweight champion Cain Velasquez is an ace at mixing up his grappling and striking offense this way.

Wrestling-based Velasquez would not have landed this many punches
against punching-specialist Dos Santos in a pure boxing match.

Ronda Rousey is no Cain Velasquez (that's not an insult- very few fighters can do what he does), but she nonetheless mixes up her strikes and grappling nicely, especially during her last few fights.  To be clear, her boxing needs work: she throws wild strikes and walks straight forward toward her opponents (more on that in the next section).  But when she comes toward them, her opponent has no idea if she is going to attempt to clinch or hit her, because she is known to alternate between both.  They have to be ready for anything, and spreading an opponent's defense thin like that means you can land good shots against someone who is theoretically the "better" striker.

Factors in Mayweather's Favor
1.   Physical Strength: I'm not going to go into this too much because most people know this already, but yes, cisgendered men are generally physically stronger than cisgendered women of the same size.  That would affect how the bout was fought, because Rousey would need to be much more careful about messing up against Floyd than the other way around.

Of course, we've seen it before where the smaller person uses superior fighting technique and strategy to beat the bigger person:


...but the fact remains that a disparity between their physical strength exists.

2.  Footwork: Mayweather is an expert at controlling range.  When he wants to get close, he clinches; when he wants to be far away, he uses his excellent footwork.  I already mentioned how his clinching would become a liability against Rousey, but his footwork would be exactly the opposite.

As I alluded to above, Rousey's main tactic for getting into the clinch against her opponents has been walking straight toward them and swinging away.  In her most recent match against the hilariously over-matched Bethe Correia she did exactly that.  Against someone like Mayweather, who has the ability to use his footwork to circle out against danger or come in on varied lines of attack, Rousey's tactic of walking straight forward to engage her opponent would fail miserably.

3.  Body Shots: If Rousey's key to slowing down Mayweather is leg kicks, then Mayweather's best shot at slowing down Rousey is through body shots.  Good body shots are devastating (I know from experience; I dreaded them in both boxing and muay thai sparring).  They also rob you of energy.  Because MMA fighters don't have time to develop their striking ability as much as boxers and kickboxers do, however, they often neglect body shots and mostly hunt for the head when throwing their punches (though there are exceptions, such as the aforementioned Junior Dos Santos and the Diaz brothers).

Dos Santos landing a body shot, which we don't see enough of in MMA.

Boxers are much better at throwing body shots consistently, and Mayweather is no exception.  He goes to the body often, and uses this as an important part of his fighting strategy.  There's the old saying in boxing that when someone covers the head, you attack the body, and when they cover the body, you attack the head.  Floyd, like every other high level boxer, uses this strategy.  If he could land body shots consistently against Rousey, she'd fatigue quickly and possibly drop her guard, allowing for Mayweather to aim shots at her head.

Keys to Victory
Rousey: Rousey's biggest key to victory would be to attack that lead leg which Mayweather leaves sticking out while in his heavily side on stance.  She could attempt leg kicks to slow him down and draw out the match, single leg takedowns to try and get him to the ground and end it quickly, or, ideally, alternate between both.  If she did this while improving her ring craft to a level that she isn't just walking straight forward and swinging, she would eventually get the fight to the ground and undoubtedly finish it.

Mayweather:  Mayweather would want to use his footwork to control the range of the fight.  He'd have to stay mostly on the outside, only coming in on smart lines of attack to throw a few punches then get right back out before Rousey could get her hands on him.  He'd want to make sure he alternated between shots to the body and head in order to keep Rousey guessing.  Every additional way in which he could make himself elusive would, of course, come in handy.

Verdict
It would be an intense fight, but in the end, history has shown that as long as a grappler has at least a little striking competence, they will beat the striker with little grappling competence, even if there's a strength gap.  We saw it when Royce Gracie dominated the early UFC tournaments, even when his opponents out-weighed him dramatically (before weight classes, 176 pound Royce often went up against men who weighed well over 200 pounds).  We continued to see it time and time again in Pride and the UFC, before fighters became well rounded enough that striking specialists learned basic grappling techniques and defense.

The greatest MMA heavyweight of all time, Fedor Emelianenko, weighed in the range of
about 220-230 pounds in his prime, and was the smaller guy in almost all of his fights.

In this throwback to 90s/early 00's-era MMA, all Rousey would need against Mayweather is one chance to get the fight to the ground.  That could come about in a number of ways: catching Mayweather in the clinch as he steps in for an attack; getting a single leg takedown on Mayweather's vulnerable lead leg; being able to initiate the clinch against Mayweather later in the fight after cutting off his mobility with repeated leg kicks; Mayweather instinctively clinching against her, as he has a habit of doing.  It would only take one of these things happening, at any point during the fight, for Rousey to get the fight to the ground, in which case the fight would play out similarly to Randy Couture vs James Toney.

A lot of people think the strength disparity would be too much for Rousey to overcome.  And in the striking exchanges, they very well would be.  If Rousey got it in her head that she could actually beat him while staying in striking range the entire match she'd probably lose very quickly, even if her boxing skill level were at all comparable to Mayweather's (and it definitely isn't).

But MMA has a science and set of tactics behind it that are very different than boxing's, and Rousey's experience with and understanding of them outweighs Mayweather's substantially.  Physical strength matters- there's a reason why weight classes exist- but there is an irrefutable mountain of evidence that shows elite skill set can overcome a physical strength disparity if the physically stronger person isn't near their opponent's skill level.

Prediction: Rousey.