Ultimately, though, what the hell does any of that mean?
Well, it'd be easy to say that the leftist candidate beat the center-right (PAN) and center-left (PRI) candidates. It'd also be over-simplying it to the point of being wrong. After all, with such a narrative, how would we explain how the leftist political party that Lopez Obrador served as candidate for in the 2006 and 2012 presidential elections, the PRD (Partido de la Revolucion Democratica/Party of the Democratic Revolution), actually formed a coalition with the center-right PAN during this year's election? What gives?
Well, as someone whose mom's family is in Mexico, who has an MA with a specialty in Latin American history, and who follows major Mexican elections, I'll tell you! Or at least tell you what I can. Honestly, you'd be better off talking to a lot of people from Mexico and reading a lot of books about Mexican politics. But that requires a time investment a lot of us don't have when we're trying so hard to understand our own political situation, not to mention our other daily struggles. So, hopefully, this can be a helpful introductory primer for everyone (and, sadly, this primer alone will make you better qualified to talk about Mexican politics than about 99% of the non-Mexican US population).
Anywho, rambling aside, let's get started. What I'll do here is talk a bit about Mexican political history, get to the broadening of Mexican electoral democracy, and end with some info on Lopez Obrador himself. I hope this helps!
Porfirio Diaz and the Mexican Revolution
"Fuck fist fights and lane scuffles, pillow case to ya face makes the shell muffled"
-Porfirio Diaz, probably
-Porfirio Diaz, probably
It may seem odd to start so far back, but part of why Mexico has had the political system it has today stems from Porfirio Diaz, the dictator that the 1910 Mexican Revolution overthrew in 1911. Yes, 1911. You've probably heard that the Revolution ended around 1920. Well, you'd be correct. It was a pretty messy time, and the otherthrow of Diaz was just the beginning.
Diaz came to power as a war hero after helping defeat the French occupation of Mexico in 1867. He ruled from 1876-1880, then from 1884 all the way until he was overthrown in 1911. This time period is known as the Porfiriato, where Diaz ruled with an iron thumb and crushed any who opposed him.
His reign actually started with some good will because of his status as a war hero, but that gradually changed. There had been rumblings and small rebellions against him ever since the 1890s, when global economic crises mixed with opposition to his repressive ways made his glimmer as a war hero start to disappear. It wasn't until 1910, however, when rebellion against his rule fomented into a full, nation-wide movement.
Long story short, after Diaz was overthrown in 1911, there was a power struggle between a ton of different factions about what post-revolutionary Mexico should look like. People fought and died over questions of land reform, democracy vs authoritarianism, economic systems, and so much more. It's hard to say exactly which faction "won" per se, because the first post-revolutionary president to not be assassinated in office, Alvaro Obregon, was a shrewd politician who walked a middle ground between the radical factions led by people like Emiliano Zapata and the more centralized, reform-over-radicalism, politically minded factions led by people like his old boss, Venustiano Carranza.
In a way, Obregon's mixture of center-left populism, shrewd political calculation, and the ability to make every faction of the revolution feel like he was on their side was a perfect representation of the PRI before it even existed. Obregon "won" partially because everyone was tired of fighting, partially because Zapata's death in 1919 at the hands of Carranza demoralized so many of the radical factions (people from Zapata's faction actually sided with Obregon when he broke with Carranza), and partially because Obregon was such a damn good politician.
Unfortunately for him, that victory would be short lived.
The Mexican Revolution's Aftermath
Obregon, seen above, who probably had to deal with a lot of annoying
"how do you masturbate??"jokes from his friends after losing his right arm fighting in 1915.
Obregon was especially gifted at this. During his time as president he made numerous reforms that appealed to rural peasants (such as land reform), industrial workers (such as legalizing labor unions), the emerging professional middle class (such as creating professional associations linking them to the state), and those in the military (basically, making sure they could afford to eat). He was president from 1920-1924 and was succeeded by Plutarco Elias Calles, his fellow revolutionary general and chosen political heir, from 1924-1928. Those who opposed Calles's candidacy were crushed or ignored, depending on the threat level they posed. The biggest threat was the Catholic Church, which tried unsuccessfully to combat the regime of the Revolution during the Cristero War of 1926-1929.
When Obregon tried to run again in 1928, however, it was an unpopular move thanks to Mexico's history with single-man rule. He was assassinated in 1928. Memories of Diaz loomed strong. The Mexican people didn't want a leader to become too enamored with lengthy stints as leader for fear of another Porfiriato. Because of that, Mexico successfully avoided any one person seizing power.
What they got, instead, was a political party that seized power.
The PRI's Origins
Lazaro Cardenas, sometimes referred to as "Mexico's FDR" by people who study Mexican politics
and "Mexico's worst facial hair" by some of his close friends [citation needed].
Calles seized power after Obregon's assassination, but not as president. Instead he created the PNR (Partido National Revolucionario/National Revolutionary Party), which would eventually become the PRI. He headed the PNR, which made him in charge of Mexico's single-party state, and passed political reforms such as extending the presidential term from four to six years. He appointed an interim president in the wake of Obregon's death while "elections" were held in 1929. His candidate he chose for the election, Pascual Ortiz Rubio, served only until 1932, when he resigned in protest over how blatant Calles's rule over Mexico's political system was. Another interim leader finished off the term.
In 1934, Calles made a calculation that ended up being wrong for him, but right for the people of Mexico, as well as for the PNR. He chose Lazaro Cardenas, yet another general of the Mexican Revolution who fought on the same side as Obregon/Calles, whom he thought he could control. He was wrong. Cardenas soon exiled Calles and his closest followers in 1935. As president, Cardenas also nationalized the oil industry (among other industries), greatly expanded labor rights, carried out the largest land reform Mexico had ever seen to that point by a wide margin, and a variety of other policies that make him the most popular president of Mexico of all time, even to this day.
Having Cardenas as president not only helped the people of Mexico but, as mentioned above, the PNR itself. The fact that he bore the PNR name meant that all of his positive reforms became associated with the party.
Cardenas chose a man named Manuel Avila Camacho as his successor, who served as president from 1940 to 1946 and was more moderate than Cardenas. This was an intentional move from Cardenas, who faced steep uphill battles against many powerful interests for most of his reforms. He wanted a successor who would focus on consolidating his policies instead of pushing things further at the risk of an overthrow. Manuel Avila Camacho ended up serving exactly that role as president. In 1946 he also changed the party's name, this time to its current-day PRI name.
PRI Rule
The PRI's flag, sporting the Mexican flag's colors
in a very unsubtle attempt to get people to think PRI=Mexico.
After the presidency of Cardenas, well, a lot of things happened. The short version, however, is this: the PRI remained in power, largely without significant challenges, for the next few decades (1940s-late 1970s). During this time they practiced an economic model known as Import Substitution Industrialization, or ISI, which was a popular economic model among center-left Latin American leaders at the time. The basic idea is to have a strong social state (that is, a government which spends a lot on public programs) that is in part funded by tariffs that help protect domestic industries from being overwhelmed by international competition.
Like when the ISI model was used elsewhere, the results were pretty good. Economic growth and robust social programs helped develop Mexico into a middle power with better conditions for its people than many other Latin American countries at the time, creating what was then referred to as the "Mexican Economic Miracle." This worked for a while, but began to crumble thanks to a combination of mismanagement by the PRI government, debt, global economic issues, and increased opposition to the PRI's authoritarian tactics.
One of the starkest examples of the PRI's authoritarianism came in 1968, when students and other civilians protested the Mexican government's prioritizing of hosting the 1968 Olympics in Mexico City over the well-being of its people. On October 2nd, soldiers fired into a crowd of protestors, killing somewhere between three to four hundred unarmed people, and arrested over a thousand more.
These authoritarian tactics, mixed with the aforementioned economic problems, led to increasing discontent with the PRI's monpoly on power.
Cracks In The Wall
Lazaro Cardenas's son Cuauhtemoc Cardenas, seen here making the face he makes
whenever someone asks "why don't you grow out a mustache like the one your dad had?"
So, let's talk real quick about Mexico's two biggest rival parties, PAN and PRD. The center-right PAN was created all the way back in 1939, but never won more than a few seats in local governments thanks to the PRI's hold on power. The leftist PRD, on the other hand, was formed in 1986 as part of the Democratic Current, which began as a separatist faction of the PRI that demanded a more democratic and leftward political direction for Mexican politics.
See, after the Mexican economic miracle stalled in the 1970s, the PRI turned away from the ISI model, rather than try to salvage it. They turned toward the neoliberal global capitalism model abroad and austerity cuts (as well as privatizing government industries) at home. This angered many Mexicans, including those who tolerated the PRI's authoritarian tendencies because of the economic benefits the ISI model brought them. This helped create the groundswell for the Democratic Current, which was led by Cuauhtemoc Cardenas, the son of Lazaro Cardenas.
In the 1988 presidential election the Democratic Current turned into the PRD, which ran Cuauhtemoc Cardenas against PRI candidate Carlos Salinas. Cardenas came closer than any other opposition presidential candidate in Mexican electoral history, getting 31% against Salinas's 50%, though it's widely believed this was due to electoral fraud by the PRI (which isn't helped by the fact that in 1991 both the ruling PRI and the opposition PAN party voted to burn all the ballots from the 1988 election, destroying all evidence).
This was not a good look for the PRI. Whether or not Cardenas actually got more votes than Salinas, it was pretty clear widespread fraud had indeed occurred. Because of that, Salinas faced immense international pressure to further democratize Mexico. He obliged by democratizing state-wide elections, which led to non-PRI candidates finally winning governorships, starting with PAN candidate Ernesto Ruffo Appel in Baja California in 1989. He also allowed international observers at the 1994 elections. Though not without controversy, the 1994 elections were Mexico's most democratic elections up to that point.
PRI candidate Ernesto Zedillo won in 1994. He further democratized the Mexican political system, setting the stage for the 2000 election. His three most important reforms were that he (1)strengthened the judicial and legislative branches enough to be a strong check on the president, (2) made Mexico's Federal Electorate Institute and Federal Electoral Court completely independent of the PRI, and (3)allowed public funding for all federally recognized political parties, particularly the PRD and PAN.
He also deviated slightly from the path of Mexico's past few presidents. He continued embracing neoliberal policies and privatizing state industries, but lessened the austerity measures. He founded Progresa (Progress), later renamed Oportunidades (Opportunities), which gave money to families in exchange for regular school attendance, health clinic visits, and nutrition support. This would later become not only his most popular policy, but one of the most popular policies of modern day Mexico.
A New Era?
Vicente Fox, who shared George W. Bush's fascination with playing cowboy.
Though Zedillo created Oportunidades and launched some democratic reforms, many of his other economic policies (particularly his privatization of state industries), mixed with his poor handling of the Zapista Uprising and Mexican citizen's dissatisfaction with the PRI's one party rule, led to the PRI's loss of the presidential election in both 2000 and 2006 to the center-right PAN. The 2000 election of PAN's Vicente Fox marked the first time that the PRI had lost since its inception, and Fox's inauguration marked the first peaceful transition of power from one political force to another in the country's history.
Fox's presidency marked a new era in Mexican politics symbolically, but not necessarily substantively. He continued the policies of the neoliberal PRI presidents of the 1980s and 1990s while expanding the power of the Catholic Church and trying unsuccessfully to create a free trade zone out of Latin America. Diplomatically, he befriended George W. Bush and feuded with leaders like Hugo Chavez and Fidel Castro. This was also when the drug cartels started to become one of the country's main political issues, which Fox decided to fight with force (which is basically how it's been fought since, regardless of party).
He also had beef with Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador, the winner of this last Sunday's election, but we'll get to that more in a moment.
After Fox's term ended, the PAN won again in 2006 with candidate Felipe Calderon (Lopez Obrador came in close second; the PRI finished a distant third). Calderon largely continued Fox's policies, though his presidency was marred by severely escalated violence from the drug war (which he fought with an escalation of armed forces) and the 2008 Great Recession (which he fought with the normal tool set of neoliberal austerity economics, with the notable and surprising exception of bringing universal health coverage to Mexico through his wildly popular Seguro Popular program).
In the 2012 elections, the PRI returned to power with Enrique Peña Nieto's victory. His presidency has been one of lukewarm popularity, with him seen as a personification of everything wrong with both the PRI in particular and the status quo in general. However, with PAN having proved disappointing as a whole, the stage was set for something new in the 2018 Mexican elections.
Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador
Seen here giving a thumbs up like a cheesy anime character.
Alright, we finally got here! Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador (nicknamed AMLO) was born in 1953 in a small village in the southern Mexican state of Tabasco. He became active in PRI politics in the 1970s and joined the Democratic Current in its 1986 inception, supporting Cuauhtemoc Cardenas in the 1988 election. He ran for governor of Tabasco in 1994, but lost to the PRI candidate in a controversial election where most observers doubted the legitimacy of the results.
AMLO finally won elected office in 2000 (thanks partially to the electoral reforms of Zedillo), serving as the Head of Government of the Federal District, which is basically the mayor of the capital district, like how Washington DC has a a mayor. In office he created numerous social programs to help the poor, built the first new university Mexico City had seen in three decades (the Universidad Autonoma de la Ciudad de Mexico), crafted a zero tolerance policy toward crime (something very unpopular with leftists in most other parts of the world), and helped improved Mexico City's infrastructure. He left with office with an 84% approval rating, seen as a fiery populist who had pragmatic leftist policies.
This was despite a messy legal case that, long story short, had little to do with him. Basically, the previous Head of Government of Mexico City (also of the PRD) appropriated land improperly and the land owner sued the Mexico City government, which was headed by AMLO at the time. This led to a messy situation that almost saw AMLO stripped of some of his rights while the city government was under investigation, including the right to run for president. Both then-president Vicente Fox/PAN and the PRI supported barring AMLO from the presidential race. However, thanks to immense public pushback, the case was dismissed and AMLO's was not only able to run, but had his profile hugely raised by the controversy.
AMLO ran in both the 2006 and 2012 elections. In 2006, AMLO got within 0.56% of PAN candidate Felipe Calderon. ALMO claimed the elections were rigged. By this time Mexico's electoral system was more democratic and had more international observers, but many still doubted the legitimacy of the results. AMLO refused to respect the results and claimed himself the legitimate president of Mexico. For a few months he and a significant number of his followers occupied government buildings and campaigned to overhaul the Mexican system. It didn't work, but it succeeded in further raising his profile.
In the 2012 election, he came in second to the PRI's Peña Nieto, gaining 31% of the vote to Nieto's 38%. He claimed the PRI bought many votes, though he ultimately ended up not fighting the election's results. Afterward he left the PRD and founded the MORENA Party that he won with last Sunday.
Closing Thoughts
We'll see what this logo means to the people of Mexico by the next presidential election.
AMLO ran a populist, anti-"power mafia" campaign. The core of his argument is that Mexico's corruption and drug violence is a consequence of severe inequality, which he has a history of tackling throughout his time in office. He has passed legislation that has benefited Indigenous people, poor people, elderly people, and other marginalized groups in society.
However, it's undeniable that he has a knack for drawing attention to himself. Many people fear that he will be less like Chile's democratically elected Socialists like Salvador Allende or Michelle Bachelet and be more like Venezuela's Hugo Chavez, becoming a dictator who dissolves Mexico's still-developing democracy. Others fear that he'll get Mexico into open conflict with the United States, as AMLO has been an outspoken opponent of Trump. Still others see the fact that his rhetoric is already softening on issues like NAFTA, which he used to oppose completely but now wants to fix with negotiations for higher wages for Mexican workers, and fear he will simply prove to be more of the same.
My personal prediction is that AMLO will end up being a left-social democrat who undoes some of the judicial/legislative reforms of Zedillo to gain more presidential authority without actually hijacking Mexico's political system to become a dictator. As mentioned above, when he was the leader of the Mexican Federal District he implemented a lot of popular programs that benefited a lot of people, but didn't fundamentally changing the way the Federal District's politics were run.
Overall, I think he'll be a popular, beneficial leader that does some real good, but doesn't give Mexico the overhaul it needs. Still, progress is progress, and I expect AMLO to be better than the status quo. Hopefully I'm right- or, hopefully I'm wrong, and he turns out better than expected.
The people of Mexico deserve the best.
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